← Card's village Hong Kong regional
Fire AggroTier 1
at Card's village Hong Kong regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 63.9% | +10.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 39.0% | -7.0 |
| Hidden | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.0% | +12.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -3.2 |
| Water Genbu | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.9 |
| Water Fractal | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expose Darkness | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |